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Al-Nassr vs Ohod — Pro League 2018

Al-Nassr
Al-Nassr
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ohod
Ohod
1/28/2019Pro LeaguePro League · Round 17Prince Salman Bin Abdulaziz Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Al-Nassr73%
×Draw16%
Ohod11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Nassr
2.49
Ohod
0.83

Al-Nassr creates 200% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 15 away

creates per match

Al-Nassr
2.37
Ohod
0.60

allows per match

Al-Nassr
1.06
Ohod
2.60

finishing

Al-Nassr+0.00on par
Ohod+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Nassr ↓

Ohod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Al-Nassr or draw
89%
Al-Nassr or Ohod
84%
Draw or Ohod
27%

Winning margin

Al-Nassr wins by 2+
51%
Ohod wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Al-Nassr 1+ goals
92%
Al-Nassr 2+ goals
71%
Al-Nassr 3+ goals
45%
Ohod 1+ goals
56%
Ohod 2+ goals
20%
Ohod 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al-Nassr (draw refunded)
87%
Ohod (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Nassr at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.06 · 126 matches

Ohod away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Nassr attack 2.37 + Ohod defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.49

Ohod attack 0.60 + Al-Nassr defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Al-Nassr scores more
73%
level
16%
Ohod scores more
11%

Al-Nassr at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Al-Nassr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League: Al-Nassr 4–0 Ohod

Al-Nassr beat Ohod 4-0 in Pro League on January 28, 2019.

The match was played at Prince Salman Bin Abdulaziz Sport City Stadium in Al Majma'ah.