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Ohod vs Al Jubail — Division 1 2018

Ohod
Ohod
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Al Jubail
Al Jubail
5/7/2025Division 1Division 1 · Round 32Sport Hall Stadium in King Abdullah sport city

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ohod51%
×Draw26%
Al Jubail23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ohod
1.53
Al Jubail
0.92

Ohod creates 66% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 34 away

creates per match

Ohod
1.18
Al Jubail
0.76

allows per match

Ohod
1.07
Al Jubail
1.88

finishing

Ohod+0.00on par
Al Jubail+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ohod ↓

Al Jubail →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ohod or draw
77%
Ohod or Al Jubail
74%
Draw or Al Jubail
49%

Winning margin

Ohod wins by 2+
27%
Al Jubail wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ohod 1+ goals
78%
Ohod 2+ goals
45%
Ohod 3+ goals
20%
Al Jubail 1+ goals
60%
Al Jubail 2+ goals
23%
Al Jubail 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ohod (draw refunded)
69%
Al Jubail (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ohod at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.07 · 108 matches

Al Jubail away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.88 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ohod attack 1.18 + Al Jubail defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.53

Al Jubail attack 0.76 + Ohod defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ohod scores more
51%
level
26%
Al Jubail scores more
23%

Ohod at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ohod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ohod vs Al Jubail

Al Jubail beat Ohod 2-1 in Division 1 on May 7, 2025.

The match was played at Sport Hall Stadium in King Abdullah sport city in Jeddah.