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Al Jubail vs Ohod — Division 1 2018

Al Jubail
Al Jubail
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ohod
Ohod
1/6/2025Division 1Division 1 · Round 15Prince Nayef bin Abdul Aziz Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Al Jubail34%
×Draw26%
Ohod40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Jubail
1.23
Ohod
1.35

Ohod creates 10% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 108 away

creates per match

Al Jubail
1.06
Ohod
1.14

allows per match

Al Jubail
1.56
Ohod
1.41

finishing

Al Jubail+0.00on par
Ohod+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Jubail ↓

Ohod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al Jubail or draw
60%
Al Jubail or Ohod
74%
Draw or Ohod
66%

Winning margin

Al Jubail wins by 2+
14%
Ohod wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Al Jubail 1+ goals
71%
Al Jubail 2+ goals
35%
Al Jubail 3+ goals
13%
Ohod 1+ goals
74%
Ohod 2+ goals
39%
Ohod 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Al Jubail (draw refunded)
46%
Ohod (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Jubail at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.56 · 34 matches

Ohod away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.41 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Jubail attack 1.06 + Ohod defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.23

Ohod attack 1.14 + Al Jubail defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al Jubail scores more
34%
level
26%
Ohod scores more
40%

Ohod at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ohod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Jubail 0–0 Ohod

Al Jubail and Ohod drew 0-0 in Division 1 on January 6, 2025.

The match was played at Prince Nayef bin Abdul Aziz Sports City Stadium in Al Qatif.