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Ohod vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC — Pro League 2018

Ohod
Ohod
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
12/12/2018Pro LeaguePro League · Round 11Prince Mohammed bin Abdul Aziz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ohod20%
×Draw22%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ohod
1.02
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
1.91

Al-Hilal Saudi FC creates 87% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 126 away

creates per match

Ohod
1.07
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2.29

allows per match

Ohod
1.53
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
0.98

finishing

Ohod+0.00on par
Al-Hilal Saudi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ohod ↓

Al-Hilal Saudi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ohod or draw
42%
Ohod or Al-Hilal Saudi FC
78%
Draw or Al-Hilal Saudi FC
80%

Winning margin

Ohod wins by 2+
7%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Ohod 1+ goals
64%
Ohod 2+ goals
27%
Ohod 3+ goals
8%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1+ goals
85%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2+ goals
57%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Ohod (draw refunded)
26%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ohod at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Al-Hilal Saudi FC away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.98 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ohod attack 1.07 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.02

Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 2.29 + Ohod defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ohod scores more
20%
level
22%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores more
58%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ohod 0 – 1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC

Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Ohod 1-0 in Pro League on December 12, 2018.

The match was played at Prince Mohammed bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Medina.