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Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Ohod — Pro League 2018

Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ohod
Ohod
3/23/2019Pro LeaguePro League · Round 24King Saud University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Al-Hilal Saudi FC76%
×Draw15%
Ohod9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2.53
Ohod
0.74

Al-Hilal Saudi FC creates 242% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 15 away

creates per match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2.45
Ohod
0.60

allows per match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC
0.88
Ohod
2.60

finishing

Al-Hilal Saudi FC+0.00on par
Ohod+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Hilal Saudi FC ↓

Ohod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Al-Hilal Saudi FC or draw
91%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Ohod
85%
Draw or Ohod
24%

Winning margin

Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins by 2+
54%
Ohod wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1+ goals
92%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2+ goals
71%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3+ goals
46%
Ohod 1+ goals
52%
Ohod 2+ goals
17%
Ohod 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Al-Hilal Saudi FC (draw refunded)
90%
Ohod (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home — creates 2.45, concedes 0.88 · 126 matches

Ohod away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 2.45 + Ohod defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.53

Ohod attack 0.60 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores more
76%
level
15%
Ohod scores more
9%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Ohod

Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Ohod drew 0-0 in Pro League on March 23, 2019.

The match was played at King Saud University Stadium in Riyadh.