Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

OH Leuven vs Gent — Jupiler Pro League 2025

OH Leuven
OH Leuven
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gent
Gent
1/26/2025Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 23King Power at Den Dreef Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

OH Leuven40%
×Draw24%
Gent36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OH Leuven
1.54
Gent
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 23 away

creates per match

OH Leuven
1.32
Gent
1.46

allows per match

OH Leuven
1.43
Gent
1.77

finishing

OH Leuven+0.03on par
Gent-0.29scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OH Leuven ↓

Gent →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

OH Leuven or draw
64%
OH Leuven or Gent
76%
Draw or Gent
60%

Winning margin

OH Leuven wins by 2+
20%
Gent wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

OH Leuven 1+ goals
79%
OH Leuven 2+ goals
45%
OH Leuven 3+ goals
20%
Gent 1+ goals
76%
Gent 2+ goals
42%
Gent 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

OH Leuven (draw refunded)
53%
Gent (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OH Leuven at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.43 · 26 matches

Gent away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.77 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OH Leuven attack 1.32 + Gent defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.54

Gent attack 1.46 + OH Leuven defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

OH Leuven scores more
40%
level
24%
Gent scores more
36%

OH Leuven at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "OH Leuven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
T. LeysenOH LeuvenOH Leuven · G
8.3

Match Events

38'
Stefan Mitrović
66'
Leonardo Lopes← S. Kums
69'
C. Ikwuemesi← L. Zeefuik
69'
B. Verstraete← S. Schrijvers
76'
W. Balikwisha← K. N’Dri
76'
Tiago Araújo← M. Sonko
76'
O. Gandelman← A. Hjulsager
77'
W. George← Y. Maziz
78'
Federico Ricca
88'
Hélio Varela← A. Ito
88'
D. Vanzeir← A. Guðjohnsen

Possession

36%OH

Shots

19OH

Pass accuracy

49%OH

Statistics

OHGent
Overview
36%Possession64%
19Total Shots24
1.11Expected Goals (xG)1.50
1Corners7
11Fouls10
Shots
19Total Shots24
4On Target6
10Off Target11
5Blocked7
13Inside Box13
6Outside Box11
Passing
36%Possession64%
304Total Passes535
237Accurate Passes437
78%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
6Saves2
0.32Goals Prevented0.32
Discipline
11Fouls10
2Yellow Cards0
2Offsides1

Match Recap: OH Leuven vs Gent

OH Leuven and Gent drew 0-0 in Jupiler Pro League on January 26, 2025.

Gent controlled possession (64%) and registered 24 shots to 19.

The match was played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion in Heverlee.