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Gent vs OH Leuven — Jupiler Pro League 2025

Gent
Gent
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
OH Leuven
OH Leuven
F. Russo 6'
5/12/2024Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Conference League Play-off Group - 8Planet Group Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Gent44%
×Draw25%
OH Leuven31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gent
1.53
OH Leuven
1.23

Gent creates 24% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 28 away

creates per match

Gent
1.31
OH Leuven
1.10

allows per match

Gent
1.36
OH Leuven
1.75

finishing

Gent+0.07on par
OH Leuven-0.24scores less

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gent ↓

OH Leuven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Gent or draw
69%
Gent or OH Leuven
75%
Draw or OH Leuven
56%

Winning margin

Gent wins by 2+
22%
OH Leuven wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gent 1+ goals
78%
Gent 2+ goals
45%
Gent 3+ goals
20%
OH Leuven 1+ goals
71%
OH Leuven 2+ goals
35%
OH Leuven 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Gent (draw refunded)
59%
OH Leuven (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gent at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.36 · 21 matches

OH Leuven away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.75 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gent attack 1.31 + OH Leuven defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.53

OH Leuven attack 1.10 + Gent defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gent scores more
44%
level
25%
OH Leuven scores more
31%

Gent at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
F. RussoOH LeuvenOH Leuven · D
8.5

Match Events

6'
F. Russo↳ Y. Maziz
46'
M. Fernandez-Pardo← A. Hjulsager
46'
A. Brown← Núrio Fortuna
46'
I. Kandouss← S. Kums
46'
S. Mueanta← N. Nsingi
51'
Ismael Kandouss
58'
O. Gandelman← Hong Hyun-Seok
58'
K. Misao← H. Mendyl
58'
F. Miguel← J. Dom
72'
S. Schrijvers← Y. Maziz
80'
Franco Russo
80'
D. Yokota← M. Samoise
81'
J. Braut Brunes← M. Maertens
90+6'
Tarik Tissoudali
90+4'
Kento Misao
90+3'
Jonatan Braut Brunes

Possession

69%Gent

Shots

12Gent

Pass accuracy

55%Gent

Statistics

GentOH
Overview
69%Possession31%
12Total Shots8
1.88Expected Goals (xG)1.02
10Corners1
10Fouls12
Shots
12Total Shots8
2On Target4
3Off Target2
7Blocked2
9Inside Box4
3Outside Box4
Passing
69%Possession31%
668Total Passes311
574Accurate Passes221
86%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls12
2Yellow Cards3
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Gent vs OH Leuven

OH Leuven beat Gent 1-0 in Jupiler Pro League on May 12, 2024.

Goals: F. Russo (6').

Gent controlled possession (69%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Planet Group Arena in Gent.