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OH Leuven vs AS Eupen — Jupiler Pro League 2018

OH Leuven
OH Leuven
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
AS Eupen
AS Eupen
12/26/2023Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 20King Power at Den Dreef Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

OH Leuven50%
×Draw24%
AS Eupen25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OH Leuven
1.67
AS Eupen
1.11

OH Leuven creates 50% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 99 away

creates per match

OH Leuven
1.38
AS Eupen
0.96

allows per match

OH Leuven
1.26
AS Eupen
1.97

finishing

OH Leuven+0.00on par
AS Eupen+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OH Leuven ↓

AS Eupen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

OH Leuven or draw
75%
OH Leuven or AS Eupen
76%
Draw or AS Eupen
50%

Winning margin

OH Leuven wins by 2+
27%
AS Eupen wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

OH Leuven 1+ goals
81%
OH Leuven 2+ goals
50%
OH Leuven 3+ goals
23%
AS Eupen 1+ goals
67%
AS Eupen 2+ goals
30%
AS Eupen 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

OH Leuven (draw refunded)
67%
AS Eupen (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OH Leuven at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.26 · 112 matches

AS Eupen away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.97 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OH Leuven attack 1.38 + AS Eupen defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.67

AS Eupen attack 0.96 + OH Leuven defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

OH Leuven scores more
50%
level
24%
AS Eupen scores more
25%

OH Leuven at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "OH Leuven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: OH Leuven vs AS Eupen

OH Leuven beat AS Eupen 3-0 in Jupiler Pro League on December 26, 2023.

The match was played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion in Heverlee.