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AS Eupen vs OH Leuven — Jupiler Pro League 2018

AS Eupen
AS Eupen
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
OH Leuven
OH Leuven
8/26/2023Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 5Kehrwegstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

AS Eupen38%
×Draw25%
OH Leuven37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Eupen
1.48
OH Leuven
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 112 away

creates per match

AS Eupen
1.19
OH Leuven
1.17

allows per match

AS Eupen
1.73
OH Leuven
1.78

finishing

AS Eupen+0.00on par
OH Leuven+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Eupen ↓

OH Leuven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

AS Eupen or draw
63%
AS Eupen or OH Leuven
75%
Draw or OH Leuven
62%

Winning margin

AS Eupen wins by 2+
18%
OH Leuven wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

AS Eupen 1+ goals
77%
AS Eupen 2+ goals
43%
AS Eupen 3+ goals
19%
OH Leuven 1+ goals
77%
OH Leuven 2+ goals
42%
OH Leuven 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

AS Eupen (draw refunded)
51%
OH Leuven (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Eupen at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.73 · 98 matches

OH Leuven away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.78 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Eupen attack 1.19 + OH Leuven defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.48

OH Leuven attack 1.17 + AS Eupen defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

AS Eupen scores more
38%
level
25%
OH Leuven scores more
37%

AS Eupen at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "AS Eupen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jupiler Pro League: AS Eupen 3–1 OH Leuven

AS Eupen beat OH Leuven 3-1 in Jupiler Pro League on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Kehrwegstadion in Eupen.