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Ogooue FC vs FC 105 — Championnat D1 2022

Ogooue FC
Ogooue FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC 105
FC 105
4/28/2026Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ogooue FC48%
×Draw26%
FC 10526%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ogooue FC
1.51
FC 105
1.04

Ogooue FC creates 45% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 32 away

creates per match

Ogooue FC
2.15
FC 105
1.16

allows per match

Ogooue FC
0.92
FC 105
0.88

finishing

Ogooue FC+0.00on par
FC 105+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ogooue FC ↓

FC 105 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ogooue FC or draw
74%
Ogooue FC or FC 105
74%
Draw or FC 105
52%

Winning margin

Ogooue FC wins by 2+
24%
FC 105 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ogooue FC 1+ goals
78%
Ogooue FC 2+ goals
44%
Ogooue FC 3+ goals
19%
FC 105 1+ goals
65%
FC 105 2+ goals
28%
FC 105 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ogooue FC (draw refunded)
65%
FC 105 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ogooue FC at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

FC 105 away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.88 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ogooue FC attack 2.15 + FC 105 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.51

FC 105 attack 1.16 + Ogooue FC defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ogooue FC scores more
48%
level
26%
FC 105 scores more
26%

Ogooue FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ogooue FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ogooue FC vs FC 105

Ogooue FC beat FC 105 2-1 in Championnat D1 on April 28, 2026.