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FC 105 vs Ogooue FC — Championnat D1 2022

FC 105
FC 105
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ogooue FC
Ogooue FC
6/20/2026Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

FC 10537%
×Draw28%
Ogooue FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC 105
1.21
Ogooue FC
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 13 away

creates per match

FC 105
1.41
Ogooue FC
0.85

allows per match

FC 105
1.44
Ogooue FC
1.00

finishing

FC 105+0.00on par
Ogooue FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC 105 ↓

Ogooue FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FC 105 or draw
65%
FC 105 or Ogooue FC
72%
Draw or Ogooue FC
63%

Winning margin

FC 105 wins by 2+
16%
Ogooue FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC 105 1+ goals
70%
FC 105 2+ goals
34%
FC 105 3+ goals
12%
Ogooue FC 1+ goals
68%
Ogooue FC 2+ goals
32%
Ogooue FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FC 105 (draw refunded)
52%
Ogooue FC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC 105 at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

Ogooue FC away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC 105 attack 1.41 + Ogooue FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Ogooue FC attack 0.85 + FC 105 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FC 105 scores more
37%
level
28%
Ogooue FC scores more
35%

FC 105 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FC 105 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC 105 vs Ogooue FC

Ogooue FC beat FC 105 1-0 in Championnat D1 on June 20, 2026.