Ogooue FC 3–0 Cercle Mbéri: Result & Stats

Ogooue FC

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cercle Mbéri

5/5/2026

Championnat D1 · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ogooue FC44%

×Draw26%

Cercle Mbéri29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ogooue FCExpected goals in this matchCercle Mbéri

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.11

Ogooue FC

1.42

Cercle Mbéri

1.11

Ogooue FC creates 28% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 33 away

2.15

creates per match

1.30

0.92

allows per match

0.70

creates per match

Ogooue FC

2.15

Cercle Mbéri

1.30

allows per match

Ogooue FC

0.92

Cercle Mbéri

0.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ogooue FC+0.00on par

Cercle Mbéri+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ogooue FC ↓

Cercle Mbéri →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ogooue FC or draw

71%

Ogooue FC or Cercle Mbéri

74%

Draw or Cercle Mbéri

56%

Winning margin

Ogooue FC wins by 2+

21%

Cercle Mbéri wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ogooue FC 1+ goals

76%

Ogooue FC 2+ goals

41%

Ogooue FC 3+ goals

17%

Cercle Mbéri 1+ goals

67%

Cercle Mbéri 2+ goals

30%

Cercle Mbéri 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ogooue FC (draw refunded)

60%

Cercle Mbéri (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ogooue FC at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Cercle Mbéri away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.70 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ogooue FC attack 2.15 + Cercle Mbéri defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.42

Cercle Mbéri attack 1.30 + Ogooue FC defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ogooue FC scores more

44%

level

26%

Cercle Mbéri scores more

29%

Ogooue FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ogooue FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff