Cercle Mbéri 1–0 Ogooue FC: Result & Stats

Cercle Mbéri

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ogooue FC

6/30/2026

Championnat D1 · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Cercle Mbéri41%

×Draw33%

Ogooue FC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cercle MbériExpected goals in this matchOgooue FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

0.76

Cercle Mbéri

1.03

Ogooue FC

0.76

Cercle Mbéri creates 36% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 13 away

1.06

creates per match

0.85

0.67

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Cercle Mbéri

1.06

Ogooue FC

0.85

allows per match

Cercle Mbéri

0.67

Ogooue FC

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cercle Mbéri+0.00on par

Ogooue FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cercle Mbéri ↓

Ogooue FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Cercle Mbéri or draw

74%

Cercle Mbéri or Ogooue FC

67%

Draw or Ogooue FC

59%

Winning margin

Cercle Mbéri wins by 2+

16%

Ogooue FC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cercle Mbéri 1+ goals

64%

Cercle Mbéri 2+ goals

28%

Cercle Mbéri 3+ goals

9%

Ogooue FC 1+ goals

53%

Ogooue FC 2+ goals

18%

Ogooue FC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Cercle Mbéri (draw refunded)

61%

Ogooue FC (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cercle Mbéri at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.67 · 33 matches

Ogooue FC away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cercle Mbéri attack 1.06 + Ogooue FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.03

Ogooue FC attack 0.85 + Cercle Mbéri defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cercle Mbéri scores more

41%

level

33%

Ogooue FC scores more

26%

Cercle Mbéri at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cercle Mbéri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff