Ogden City 1–2 Colorado Rush: Result & Stats

Ogden City

FT

1 – 2

Colorado Rush

6/27/2021

USL League Two · Round 38Regional Athletic Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ogden City45%

×Draw21%

Colorado Rush34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ogden CityExpected goals in this matchColorado Rush

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.79

Ogden City

2.10

Colorado Rush

1.79

Ogden City creates 17% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 6 away

1.88

creates per match

1.67

1.92

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Ogden City

1.88

Colorado Rush

1.67

allows per match

Ogden City

1.92

Colorado Rush

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ogden City+0.00on par

Colorado Rush+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ogden City ↓

Colorado Rush →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Ogden City or draw

66%

Ogden City or Colorado Rush

79%

Draw or Colorado Rush

55%

Winning margin

Ogden City wins by 2+

26%

Colorado Rush wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Ogden City 1+ goals

88%

Ogden City 2+ goals

62%

Ogden City 3+ goals

35%

Colorado Rush 1+ goals

83%

Colorado Rush 2+ goals

53%

Colorado Rush 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Ogden City (draw refunded)

57%

Colorado Rush (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ogden City at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.92 · 25 matches

Colorado Rush away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ogden City attack 1.88 + Colorado Rush defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.10

Colorado Rush attack 1.67 + Ogden City defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ogden City scores more

45%

level

21%

Colorado Rush scores more

34%

Ogden City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ogden City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff