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Colorado Rush vs Ogden City — USL League Two 2018

Colorado Rush
Colorado Rush
FT
5 – 1
Ogden City
Ogden City
7/11/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 50Denver Christian High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Colorado Rush53%
×Draw23%
Ogden City24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colorado Rush
1.86
Ogden City
1.18

Colorado Rush creates 58% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 25 away

creates per match

Colorado Rush
2.00
Ogden City
1.60

allows per match

Colorado Rush
0.75
Ogden City
1.72

finishing

Colorado Rush+0.00on par
Ogden City+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado Rush ↓

Ogden City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Colorado Rush or draw
76%
Colorado Rush or Ogden City
77%
Draw or Ogden City
47%

Winning margin

Colorado Rush wins by 2+
30%
Ogden City wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Colorado Rush 1+ goals
84%
Colorado Rush 2+ goals
55%
Colorado Rush 3+ goals
28%
Ogden City 1+ goals
69%
Ogden City 2+ goals
33%
Ogden City 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Colorado Rush (draw refunded)
69%
Ogden City (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado Rush at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Ogden City away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.72 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado Rush attack 2.00 + Ogden City defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.86

Ogden City attack 1.60 + Colorado Rush defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Colorado Rush scores more
53%
level
23%
Ogden City scores more
24%

Colorado Rush at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Colorado Rush will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Colorado Rush 5 – 1 Ogden City

Colorado Rush beat Ogden City 5-1 in USL League Two on July 11, 2021.

The match was played at Denver Christian High School in Lakewood, Colorado.