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Ogden City vs Colorado ISA — USL League Two 2018

Ogden City
Ogden City
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Colorado ISA
Colorado ISA
6/3/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 5America First Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Ogden City63%
×Draw18%
Colorado ISA19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ogden City
2.58
Colorado ISA
1.39

Ogden City creates 86% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 29 away

creates per match

Ogden City
1.88
Colorado ISA
0.86

allows per match

Ogden City
1.92
Colorado ISA
3.28

finishing

Ogden City+0.00on par
Colorado ISA+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ogden City ↓

Colorado ISA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Ogden City or draw
81%
Ogden City or Colorado ISA
82%
Draw or Colorado ISA
37%

Winning margin

Ogden City wins by 2+
41%
Colorado ISA wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ogden City 1+ goals
92%
Ogden City 2+ goals
72%
Ogden City 3+ goals
47%
Colorado ISA 1+ goals
75%
Colorado ISA 2+ goals
40%
Colorado ISA 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Ogden City (draw refunded)
76%
Colorado ISA (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ogden City at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.92 · 25 matches

Colorado ISA away — creates 0.86, concedes 3.28 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ogden City attack 1.88 + Colorado ISA defence 3.28 → ÷2 → 2.58

Colorado ISA attack 0.86 + Ogden City defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Ogden City scores more
63%
level
18%
Colorado ISA scores more
19%

Ogden City at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ogden City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Ogden City 1–2 Colorado ISA

Colorado ISA beat Ogden City 2-1 in USL League Two on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at America First Field in Sandy, Utah.