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Colorado ISA vs Ogden City — USL League Two 2018

Colorado ISA
Colorado ISA
FT
1 – 6
HT: 0 – 4
Ogden City
Ogden City
6/23/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 13Lutheran High School Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Colorado ISA18%
×Draw18%
Ogden City64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colorado ISA
1.24
Ogden City
2.49

Ogden City creates 101% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 25 away

creates per match

Colorado ISA
0.76
Ogden City
1.60

allows per match

Colorado ISA
3.38
Ogden City
1.72

finishing

Colorado ISA+0.00on par
Ogden City+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado ISA ↓

Ogden City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Colorado ISA or draw
36%
Colorado ISA or Ogden City
82%
Draw or Ogden City
82%

Winning margin

Colorado ISA wins by 2+
7%
Ogden City wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Colorado ISA 1+ goals
71%
Colorado ISA 2+ goals
35%
Colorado ISA 3+ goals
13%
Ogden City 1+ goals
92%
Ogden City 2+ goals
71%
Ogden City 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Colorado ISA (draw refunded)
22%
Ogden City (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado ISA at home — creates 0.76, concedes 3.38 · 29 matches

Ogden City away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.72 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado ISA attack 0.76 + Ogden City defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.24

Ogden City attack 1.60 + Colorado ISA defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 2.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Colorado ISA scores more
18%
level
18%
Ogden City scores more
64%

Ogden City at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Ogden City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Colorado ISA 1–6 Ogden City

Ogden City beat Colorado ISA 6-1 in USL League Two on June 23, 2024.

The match was played at Lutheran High School Stadium in Parker, Colorado.