Ogden City 3–3 Boulder County United

Ogden City

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Boulder County United

7/1/2023

USL League Two · Western Conference - 12Zions Bank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ogden City37%

×Draw22%

Boulder County United41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ogden CityExpected goals in this matchBoulder County United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.86

Ogden City

1.74

Boulder County United

1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 5 away

1.88

creates per match

1.80

1.92

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Ogden City

1.88

Boulder County United

1.80

allows per match

Ogden City

1.92

Boulder County United

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ogden City+0.00on par

Boulder County United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ogden City ↓

Boulder County United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Ogden City or draw

59%

Ogden City or Boulder County United

78%

Draw or Boulder County United

63%

Winning margin

Ogden City wins by 2+

19%

Boulder County United wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Ogden City 1+ goals

82%

Ogden City 2+ goals

52%

Ogden City 3+ goals

25%

Boulder County United 1+ goals

84%

Boulder County United 2+ goals

55%

Boulder County United 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Ogden City (draw refunded)

47%

Boulder County United (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ogden City at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.92 · 25 matches

Boulder County United away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ogden City attack 1.88 + Boulder County United defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.74

Boulder County United attack 1.80 + Ogden City defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ogden City scores more

37%

level

22%

Boulder County United scores more

41%

Boulder County United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Boulder County United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff