Boulder County United 2–2 Ogden City

Boulder County United

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Ogden City

6/25/2023

USL League Two · Western Conference - 10Peak to Peak Charter School Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Boulder County United36%

×Draw22%

Ogden City42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boulder County UnitedExpected goals in this matchOgden City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.80

Boulder County United

1.66

Ogden City

1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 25 away

1.60

creates per match

1.60

2.00

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Boulder County United

1.60

Ogden City

1.60

allows per match

Boulder County United

2.00

Ogden City

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boulder County United+0.00on par

Ogden City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boulder County United ↓

Ogden City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Boulder County United or draw

58%

Boulder County United or Ogden City

78%

Draw or Ogden City

64%

Winning margin

Boulder County United wins by 2+

18%

Ogden City wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Boulder County United 1+ goals

81%

Boulder County United 2+ goals

49%

Boulder County United 3+ goals

23%

Ogden City 1+ goals

83%

Ogden City 2+ goals

54%

Ogden City 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Boulder County United (draw refunded)

46%

Ogden City (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boulder County United at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Ogden City away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.72 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boulder County United attack 1.60 + Ogden City defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.66

Ogden City attack 1.60 + Boulder County United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Boulder County United scores more

36%

level

22%

Ogden City scores more

42%

Ogden City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ogden City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Boulder County United vs Ogden City

Boulder County United and Ogden City drew 2-2 in USL League Two on June 25, 2023.

The match was played at Peak to Peak Charter School Field in Lafayette, Colorado.

Boulder County United vs Ogden City — USL League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Boulder County United vs Ogden City