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Ogden City vs Albuquerque Sol — USL League Two 2018

Ogden City
Ogden City
FT
1 – 1
Albuquerque Sol
Albuquerque Sol
6/30/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 6Spence Eccles Ogden Community Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ogden City54%
×Draw21%
Albuquerque Sol25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ogden City
2.06
Albuquerque Sol
1.33

Ogden City creates 55% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 4 away

creates per match

Ogden City
1.88
Albuquerque Sol
0.75

allows per match

Ogden City
1.92
Albuquerque Sol
2.25

finishing

Ogden City+0.00on par
Albuquerque Sol+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ogden City ↓

Albuquerque Sol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Ogden City or draw
75%
Ogden City or Albuquerque Sol
79%
Draw or Albuquerque Sol
46%

Winning margin

Ogden City wins by 2+
32%
Albuquerque Sol wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ogden City 1+ goals
87%
Ogden City 2+ goals
61%
Ogden City 3+ goals
34%
Albuquerque Sol 1+ goals
74%
Albuquerque Sol 2+ goals
38%
Albuquerque Sol 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ogden City (draw refunded)
69%
Albuquerque Sol (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ogden City at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.92 · 25 matches

Albuquerque Sol away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ogden City attack 1.88 + Albuquerque Sol defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.06

Albuquerque Sol attack 0.75 + Ogden City defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ogden City scores more
54%
level
21%
Albuquerque Sol scores more
25%

Ogden City at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ogden City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Ogden City 1–1 Albuquerque Sol

Ogden City and Albuquerque Sol drew 1-1 in USL League Two on June 30, 2019.

The match was played at Spence Eccles Ogden Community Sports Complex.