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Albuquerque Sol vs Ogden City — USL League Two 2018

Albuquerque Sol
Albuquerque Sol
FT
3 – 1
Ogden City
Ogden City
7/12/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 15St. Pius X High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Albuquerque Sol36%
×Draw24%
Ogden City39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albuquerque Sol
1.48
Ogden City
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 25 away

creates per match

Albuquerque Sol
1.25
Ogden City
1.60

allows per match

Albuquerque Sol
1.50
Ogden City
1.72

finishing

Albuquerque Sol+0.00on par
Ogden City+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albuquerque Sol ↓

Ogden City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Albuquerque Sol or draw
61%
Albuquerque Sol or Ogden City
76%
Draw or Ogden City
64%

Winning margin

Albuquerque Sol wins by 2+
17%
Ogden City wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Albuquerque Sol 1+ goals
77%
Albuquerque Sol 2+ goals
43%
Albuquerque Sol 3+ goals
19%
Ogden City 1+ goals
79%
Ogden City 2+ goals
46%
Ogden City 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Albuquerque Sol (draw refunded)
48%
Ogden City (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albuquerque Sol at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Ogden City away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.72 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albuquerque Sol attack 1.25 + Ogden City defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.48

Ogden City attack 1.60 + Albuquerque Sol defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Albuquerque Sol scores more
36%
level
24%
Ogden City scores more
39%

Ogden City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ogden City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Albuquerque Sol 3–1 Ogden City

Albuquerque Sol beat Ogden City 3-1 in USL League Two on July 12, 2019.

The match was played at St. Pius X High School.