Ogden City 1–1 Albion Colorado: Result & Stats

Ogden City

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Albion Colorado

6/21/2024

USL League Two · Western Conference - 12Zions Bank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ogden City33%

×Draw22%

Albion Colorado45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ogden CityExpected goals in this matchAlbion Colorado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.99

Ogden City

1.69

Albion Colorado

1.99

Albion Colorado creates 18% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 18 away

1.88

creates per match

2.06

1.92

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Ogden City

1.88

Albion Colorado

2.06

allows per match

Ogden City

1.92

Albion Colorado

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ogden City+0.00on par

Albion Colorado+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ogden City ↓

Albion Colorado →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Ogden City or draw

55%

Ogden City or Albion Colorado

78%

Draw or Albion Colorado

67%

Winning margin

Ogden City wins by 2+

16%

Albion Colorado wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Ogden City 1+ goals

82%

Ogden City 2+ goals

50%

Ogden City 3+ goals

24%

Albion Colorado 1+ goals

86%

Albion Colorado 2+ goals

59%

Albion Colorado 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Ogden City (draw refunded)

42%

Albion Colorado (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ogden City at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.92 · 25 matches

Albion Colorado away — creates 2.06, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ogden City attack 1.88 + Albion Colorado defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.69

Albion Colorado attack 2.06 + Ogden City defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ogden City scores more

33%

level

22%

Albion Colorado scores more

45%

Albion Colorado at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Albion Colorado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ogden City vs Albion Colorado

Ogden City and Albion Colorado drew 1-1 in USL League Two on June 21, 2024.

The match was played at Zions Bank Stadium in Herriman, Utah.

Ogden City vs Albion Colorado — USL League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ogden City vs Albion Colorado