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Albion Colorado vs Ogden City — USL League Two 2018

Albion Colorado
Albion Colorado
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ogden City
Ogden City
5/26/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 4Peak to Peak Charter School Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Albion Colorado48%
×Draw23%
Ogden City29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albion Colorado
1.77
Ogden City
1.33

Albion Colorado creates 33% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 25 away

creates per match

Albion Colorado
1.83
Ogden City
1.60

allows per match

Albion Colorado
1.06
Ogden City
1.72

finishing

Albion Colorado+0.00on par
Ogden City+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albion Colorado ↓

Ogden City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Albion Colorado or draw
71%
Albion Colorado or Ogden City
77%
Draw or Ogden City
52%

Winning margin

Albion Colorado wins by 2+
26%
Ogden City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Albion Colorado 1+ goals
83%
Albion Colorado 2+ goals
53%
Albion Colorado 3+ goals
26%
Ogden City 1+ goals
74%
Ogden City 2+ goals
38%
Ogden City 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Albion Colorado (draw refunded)
62%
Ogden City (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albion Colorado at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Ogden City away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.72 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albion Colorado attack 1.83 + Ogden City defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.77

Ogden City attack 1.60 + Albion Colorado defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Albion Colorado scores more
48%
level
23%
Ogden City scores more
29%

Albion Colorado at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Albion Colorado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Albion Colorado 2 – 1 Ogden City

Albion Colorado beat Ogden City 2-1 in USL League Two on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Peak to Peak Charter School Field in Lafayette, Colorado.