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OFTA vs Foncha ST — Elite Two 2020

OFTA
OFTA
FT
1 – 0
Foncha ST
Foncha ST
7/9/2021Elite TwoElite Two · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

OFTA48%
×Draw26%
Foncha ST27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFTA
1.53
Foncha ST
1.08

OFTA creates 42% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 50 away

creates per match

OFTA
0.94
Foncha ST
1.04

allows per match

OFTA
1.11
Foncha ST
2.12

finishing

OFTA+0.00on par
Foncha ST+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFTA ↓

Foncha ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

OFTA or draw
73%
OFTA or Foncha ST
74%
Draw or Foncha ST
52%

Winning margin

OFTA wins by 2+
24%
Foncha ST wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

OFTA 1+ goals
78%
OFTA 2+ goals
45%
OFTA 3+ goals
20%
Foncha ST 1+ goals
66%
Foncha ST 2+ goals
29%
Foncha ST 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

OFTA (draw refunded)
64%
Foncha ST (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFTA at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Foncha ST away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.12 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFTA attack 0.94 + Foncha ST defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.53

Foncha ST attack 1.04 + OFTA defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

OFTA scores more
48%
level
26%
Foncha ST scores more
27%

OFTA at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "OFTA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: OFTA vs Foncha ST

OFTA beat Foncha ST 1-0 in Elite Two on July 9, 2021.