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Foncha ST vs OFTA — Elite Two 2020

Foncha ST
Foncha ST
FT
3 – 1
OFTA
OFTA
2/18/2023Elite TwoElite Two · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Foncha ST51%
×Draw27%
OFTA22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Foncha ST
1.43
OFTA
0.83

Foncha ST creates 72% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 20 away

creates per match

Foncha ST
1.35
OFTA
0.60

allows per match

Foncha ST
1.06
OFTA
1.50

finishing

Foncha ST+0.00on par
OFTA+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foncha ST ↓

OFTA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Foncha ST or draw
78%
Foncha ST or OFTA
73%
Draw or OFTA
49%

Winning margin

Foncha ST wins by 2+
25%
OFTA wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Foncha ST 1+ goals
76%
Foncha ST 2+ goals
42%
Foncha ST 3+ goals
17%
OFTA 1+ goals
56%
OFTA 2+ goals
20%
OFTA 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Foncha ST (draw refunded)
70%
OFTA (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foncha ST at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.06 · 49 matches

OFTA away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foncha ST attack 1.35 + OFTA defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.43

OFTA attack 0.60 + Foncha ST defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Foncha ST scores more
51%
level
27%
OFTA scores more
22%

Foncha ST at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Foncha ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Foncha ST 3–1 OFTA

Foncha ST beat OFTA 3-1 in Elite Two on February 18, 2023.