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OFTA vs Eding Sport — Elite One 2019

OFTA
OFTA
FT
1 – 0
Eding Sport
Eding Sport
6/5/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 24Stade Omnisports de Bafoussam

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

OFTA24%
×Draw26%
Eding Sport51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFTA
0.97
Eding Sport
1.54

Eding Sport creates 59% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 54 away

creates per match

OFTA
0.82
Eding Sport
1.00

allows per match

OFTA
2.09
Eding Sport
1.13

finishing

OFTA+0.00on par
Eding Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFTA ↓

Eding Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

OFTA or draw
49%
OFTA or Eding Sport
74%
Draw or Eding Sport
76%

Winning margin

OFTA wins by 2+
8%
Eding Sport wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

OFTA 1+ goals
62%
OFTA 2+ goals
25%
OFTA 3+ goals
7%
Eding Sport 1+ goals
79%
Eding Sport 2+ goals
45%
Eding Sport 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

OFTA (draw refunded)
32%
Eding Sport (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFTA at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

Eding Sport away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFTA attack 0.82 + Eding Sport defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.97

Eding Sport attack 1.00 + OFTA defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

OFTA scores more
24%
level
26%
Eding Sport scores more
51%

Eding Sport at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Eding Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: OFTA 1–0 Eding Sport

OFTA beat Eding Sport 1-0 in Elite One on June 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports de Bafoussam in Bafoussam.