Eding Sport 0–0 OFTA: Result & Stats | Elite One

Eding Sport

FT

0 – 0

OFTA

4/13/2022

Elite One · Round 9Stade Omnisport de Limbe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Eding Sport38%

×Draw33%

OFTA28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eding SportExpected goals in this matchOFTA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

0.79

Eding Sport

0.97

OFTA

0.79

Eding Sport creates 23% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 11 away

1.02

creates per match

0.64

0.94

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Eding Sport

1.02

OFTA

0.64

allows per match

Eding Sport

0.94

OFTA

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eding Sport+0.00on par

OFTA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eding Sport ↓

OFTA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–114%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Eding Sport or draw

72%

Eding Sport or OFTA

67%

Draw or OFTA

62%

Winning margin

Eding Sport wins by 2+

14%

OFTA wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Eding Sport 1+ goals

62%

Eding Sport 2+ goals

25%

Eding Sport 3+ goals

7%

OFTA 1+ goals

55%

OFTA 2+ goals

19%

OFTA 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Eding Sport (draw refunded)

57%

OFTA (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eding Sport at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.94 · 54 matches

OFTA away — creates 0.64, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eding Sport attack 1.02 + OFTA defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.97

OFTA attack 0.64 + Eding Sport defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Eding Sport scores more

38%

level

33%

OFTA scores more

28%

Eding Sport at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Eding Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff