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OFTA vs Aigle Royal — Elite Two 2020

OFTA
OFTA
FT
1 – 1
Aigle Royal
Aigle Royal
3/13/2021Elite TwoElite Two · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

OFTA33%
×Draw28%
Aigle Royal39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFTA
1.09
Aigle Royal
1.20

Aigle Royal creates 10% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

creates per match

OFTA
0.94
Aigle Royal
1.29

allows per match

OFTA
1.11
Aigle Royal
1.24

finishing

OFTA+0.00on par
Aigle Royal+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFTA ↓

Aigle Royal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

OFTA or draw
61%
OFTA or Aigle Royal
72%
Draw or Aigle Royal
67%

Winning margin

OFTA wins by 2+
13%
Aigle Royal wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

OFTA 1+ goals
66%
OFTA 2+ goals
30%
OFTA 3+ goals
10%
Aigle Royal 1+ goals
70%
Aigle Royal 2+ goals
34%
Aigle Royal 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

OFTA (draw refunded)
46%
Aigle Royal (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFTA at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Aigle Royal away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFTA attack 0.94 + Aigle Royal defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.09

Aigle Royal attack 1.29 + OFTA defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

OFTA scores more
33%
level
28%
Aigle Royal scores more
39%

Aigle Royal at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Aigle Royal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: OFTA 1–1 Aigle Royal

OFTA and Aigle Royal drew 1-1 in Elite Two on March 13, 2021.