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Aigle Royal vs OFTA — Elite Two 2020

Aigle Royal
Aigle Royal
FT
0 – 1
OFTA
OFTA
7/14/2021Elite TwoElite Two · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Aigle Royal55%
×Draw26%
OFTA18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aigle Royal
1.50
OFTA
0.74

Aigle Royal creates 103% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 20 away

creates per match

Aigle Royal
1.50
OFTA
0.60

allows per match

Aigle Royal
0.89
OFTA
1.50

finishing

Aigle Royal+0.00on par
OFTA+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aigle Royal ↓

OFTA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Aigle Royal or draw
82%
Aigle Royal or OFTA
74%
Draw or OFTA
45%

Winning margin

Aigle Royal wins by 2+
29%
OFTA wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Aigle Royal 1+ goals
78%
Aigle Royal 2+ goals
44%
Aigle Royal 3+ goals
19%
OFTA 1+ goals
52%
OFTA 2+ goals
17%
OFTA 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Aigle Royal (draw refunded)
75%
OFTA (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aigle Royal at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

OFTA away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aigle Royal attack 1.50 + OFTA defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

OFTA attack 0.60 + Aigle Royal defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Aigle Royal scores more
55%
level
26%
OFTA scores more
18%

Aigle Royal at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Aigle Royal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Aigle Royal 0–1 OFTA

OFTA beat Aigle Royal 1-0 in Elite Two on July 14, 2021.