Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

OFK Vršac vs Kolubara — Prva Liga 2018

OFK Vršac
OFK Vršac
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kolubara
Kolubara
8/5/2023Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 1Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

OFK Vršac39%
×Draw31%
Kolubara31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFK Vršac
1.08
Kolubara
0.93

OFK Vršac creates 16% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 50 away

creates per match

OFK Vršac
1.04
Kolubara
1.18

allows per match

OFK Vršac
0.68
Kolubara
1.12

finishing

OFK Vršac+0.00on par
Kolubara+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFK Vršac ↓

Kolubara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

OFK Vršac or draw
69%
OFK Vršac or Kolubara
69%
Draw or Kolubara
61%

Winning margin

OFK Vršac wins by 2+
16%
Kolubara wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

OFK Vršac 1+ goals
66%
OFK Vršac 2+ goals
29%
OFK Vršac 3+ goals
10%
Kolubara 1+ goals
61%
Kolubara 2+ goals
24%
Kolubara 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

OFK Vršac (draw refunded)
56%
Kolubara (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFK Vršac at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.68 · 73 matches

Kolubara away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.12 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFK Vršac attack 1.04 + Kolubara defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.08

Kolubara attack 1.18 + OFK Vršac defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

OFK Vršac scores more
39%
level
31%
Kolubara scores more
31%

OFK Vršac at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "OFK Vršac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: OFK Vršac vs Kolubara

OFK Vršac beat Kolubara 1-0 in Prva Liga on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Vršac.