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Kolubara vs OFK Vršac — Prva Liga 2018

Kolubara
Kolubara
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
OFK Vršac
OFK Vršac
11/12/2023Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 16SRC Kolubara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Kolubara47%
×Draw28%
OFK Vršac25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolubara
1.36
OFK Vršac
0.90

Kolubara creates 51% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 73 away

creates per match

Kolubara
1.39
OFK Vršac
0.89

allows per match

Kolubara
0.90
OFK Vršac
1.34

finishing

Kolubara+0.00on par
OFK Vršac+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolubara ↓

OFK Vršac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kolubara or draw
75%
Kolubara or OFK Vršac
72%
Draw or OFK Vršac
53%

Winning margin

Kolubara wins by 2+
23%
OFK Vršac wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kolubara 1+ goals
74%
Kolubara 2+ goals
39%
Kolubara 3+ goals
16%
OFK Vršac 1+ goals
59%
OFK Vršac 2+ goals
23%
OFK Vršac 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kolubara (draw refunded)
66%
OFK Vršac (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolubara at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.90 · 51 matches

OFK Vršac away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.34 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolubara attack 1.39 + OFK Vršac defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.36

OFK Vršac attack 0.89 + Kolubara defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kolubara scores more
47%
level
28%
OFK Vršac scores more
25%

Kolubara at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kolubara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kolubara vs OFK Vršac

Kolubara beat OFK Vršac 4-0 in Prva Liga on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at SRC Kolubara in Lazarevac.