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OFK Vršac vs Jedinstvo Ub — Prva Liga 2018

OFK Vršac
OFK Vršac
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jedinstvo Ub
Jedinstvo Ub
12/13/2025Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 22Gradski stadion Vrsac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

OFK Vršac44%
×Draw30%
Jedinstvo Ub26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFK Vršac
1.20
Jedinstvo Ub
0.86

OFK Vršac creates 40% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 55 away

creates per match

OFK Vršac
1.04
Jedinstvo Ub
1.05

allows per match

OFK Vršac
0.68
Jedinstvo Ub
1.35

finishing

OFK Vršac+0.00on par
Jedinstvo Ub+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFK Vršac ↓

Jedinstvo Ub →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

OFK Vršac or draw
74%
OFK Vršac or Jedinstvo Ub
70%
Draw or Jedinstvo Ub
56%

Winning margin

OFK Vršac wins by 2+
19%
Jedinstvo Ub wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

OFK Vršac 1+ goals
70%
OFK Vršac 2+ goals
34%
OFK Vršac 3+ goals
12%
Jedinstvo Ub 1+ goals
58%
Jedinstvo Ub 2+ goals
21%
Jedinstvo Ub 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

OFK Vršac (draw refunded)
62%
Jedinstvo Ub (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFK Vršac at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.68 · 73 matches

Jedinstvo Ub away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.35 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFK Vršac attack 1.04 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.20

Jedinstvo Ub attack 1.05 + OFK Vršac defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

OFK Vršac scores more
44%
level
30%
Jedinstvo Ub scores more
26%

OFK Vršac at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "OFK Vršac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: OFK Vršac 0–0 Jedinstvo Ub

OFK Vršac and Jedinstvo Ub drew 0-0 in Prva Liga on December 13, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Vrsac in Vrsac.