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Jedinstvo Ub vs OFK Vršac — Prva Liga 2018

Jedinstvo Ub
Jedinstvo Ub
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
OFK Vršac
OFK Vršac
9/6/2025Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 7Stadion Dragan Dzajić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Jedinstvo Ub48%
×Draw27%
OFK Vršac25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Ub
1.45
OFK Vršac
0.96

Jedinstvo Ub creates 51% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 73 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Ub
1.56
OFK Vršac
0.89

allows per match

Jedinstvo Ub
1.02
OFK Vršac
1.34

finishing

Jedinstvo Ub+0.00on par
OFK Vršac+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Ub ↓

OFK Vršac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Ub or draw
75%
Jedinstvo Ub or OFK Vršac
73%
Draw or OFK Vršac
52%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Ub wins by 2+
24%
OFK Vršac wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Ub 1+ goals
77%
Jedinstvo Ub 2+ goals
42%
Jedinstvo Ub 3+ goals
18%
OFK Vršac 1+ goals
62%
OFK Vršac 2+ goals
25%
OFK Vršac 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Ub (draw refunded)
66%
OFK Vršac (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Ub at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.02 · 54 matches

OFK Vršac away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.34 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Ub attack 1.56 + OFK Vršac defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.45

OFK Vršac attack 0.89 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Jedinstvo Ub scores more
48%
level
27%
OFK Vršac scores more
25%

Jedinstvo Ub at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Jedinstvo Ub will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jedinstvo Ub vs OFK Vršac

Jedinstvo Ub and OFK Vršac drew 2-2 in Prva Liga on September 6, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Dragan Dzajić in Ub.