OFK Vršac 2–0 Dunav Stari Banovci: Result & Stats

OFK Vršac

FT

2 – 0

Dunav Stari Banovci

8/29/2020

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 4Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

OFK Vršac77%

×Draw15%

Dunav Stari Banovci8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OFK VršacExpected goals in this matchDunav Stari Banovci

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.47

0.66

OFK Vršac

2.47

Dunav Stari Banovci

0.66

OFK Vršac creates 274% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 28 away

2.19

creates per match

0.57

0.74

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

OFK Vršac

2.19

Dunav Stari Banovci

0.57

allows per match

OFK Vršac

0.74

Dunav Stari Banovci

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

OFK Vršac+0.00on par

Dunav Stari Banovci+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFK Vršac ↓

Dunav Stari Banovci →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–17%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

OFK Vršac or draw

92%

OFK Vršac or Dunav Stari Banovci

85%

Draw or Dunav Stari Banovci

23%

Winning margin

OFK Vršac wins by 2+

54%

Dunav Stari Banovci wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

OFK Vršac 1+ goals

91%

OFK Vršac 2+ goals

70%

OFK Vršac 3+ goals

44%

Dunav Stari Banovci 1+ goals

48%

Dunav Stari Banovci 2+ goals

14%

Dunav Stari Banovci 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

OFK Vršac (draw refunded)

91%

Dunav Stari Banovci (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFK Vršac at home — creates 2.19, concedes 0.74 · 42 matches

Dunav Stari Banovci away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.75 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFK Vršac attack 2.19 + Dunav Stari Banovci defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.47

Dunav Stari Banovci attack 0.57 + OFK Vršac defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

OFK Vršac scores more

77%

level

15%

Dunav Stari Banovci scores more

8%

OFK Vršac at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "OFK Vršac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff