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Dunav Stari Banovci vs OFK Vršac — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Dunav Stari Banovci
Dunav Stari Banovci
CANC
00:00
OFK Vršac
OFK Vršac
5/24/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 28Stadion Pod Bairom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Dunav Stari Banovci30%
×Draw23%
OFK Vršac47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Stari Banovci
1.39
OFK Vršac
1.80

OFK Vršac creates 29% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 43 away

creates per match

Dunav Stari Banovci
1.30
OFK Vršac
1.65

allows per match

Dunav Stari Banovci
1.96
OFK Vršac
1.47

finishing

Dunav Stari Banovci+0.00on par
OFK Vršac+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Stari Banovci ↓

OFK Vršac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dunav Stari Banovci or draw
53%
Dunav Stari Banovci or OFK Vršac
77%
Draw or OFK Vršac
70%

Winning margin

Dunav Stari Banovci wins by 2+
13%
OFK Vršac wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Dunav Stari Banovci 1+ goals
75%
Dunav Stari Banovci 2+ goals
40%
Dunav Stari Banovci 3+ goals
16%
OFK Vršac 1+ goals
83%
OFK Vršac 2+ goals
54%
OFK Vršac 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Dunav Stari Banovci (draw refunded)
39%
OFK Vršac (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Stari Banovci at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.96 · 27 matches

OFK Vršac away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.47 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Stari Banovci attack 1.30 + OFK Vršac defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.39

OFK Vršac attack 1.65 + Dunav Stari Banovci defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dunav Stari Banovci scores more
30%
level
23%
OFK Vršac scores more
47%

OFK Vršac at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "OFK Vršac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dunav Stari Banovci vs OFK Vršac — Match Preview

Dunav Stari Banovci face OFK Vršac on May 24, 2020 in this Srpska Liga - Vojvodina fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Dunav Stari Banovci host OFK Vršac at Stadion Pod Bairom.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.