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OFK Vršac vs Dubočica — Prva Liga 2018

OFK Vršac
OFK Vršac
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dubočica
Dubočica
11/3/2024Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 14Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

OFK Vršac49%
×Draw29%
Dubočica22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFK Vršac
1.27
Dubočica
0.74

OFK Vršac creates 72% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 73 away

creates per match

OFK Vršac
1.04
Dubočica
0.79

allows per match

OFK Vršac
0.68
Dubočica
1.51

finishing

OFK Vršac+0.00on par
Dubočica+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFK Vršac ↓

Dubočica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

OFK Vršac or draw
78%
OFK Vršac or Dubočica
71%
Draw or Dubočica
51%

Winning margin

OFK Vršac wins by 2+
23%
Dubočica wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

OFK Vršac 1+ goals
72%
OFK Vršac 2+ goals
36%
OFK Vršac 3+ goals
14%
Dubočica 1+ goals
52%
Dubočica 2+ goals
17%
Dubočica 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

OFK Vršac (draw refunded)
69%
Dubočica (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFK Vršac at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.68 · 73 matches

Dubočica away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.51 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFK Vršac attack 1.04 + Dubočica defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.27

Dubočica attack 0.79 + OFK Vršac defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

OFK Vršac scores more
49%
level
29%
Dubočica scores more
22%

OFK Vršac at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "OFK Vršac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: OFK Vršac 2–0 Dubočica

OFK Vršac beat Dubočica 2-0 in Prva Liga on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Vršac.