Dubočica 1–1 OFK Vršac: Result & Stats | Prva Liga

Dubočica

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

OFK Vršac

5/13/2024

Prva Liga · Relegation Round - 5Gradski stadion Dubočica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Dubočica41%

×Draw28%

OFK Vršac31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DubočicaExpected goals in this matchOFK Vršac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.04

Dubočica

1.26

OFK Vršac

1.04

Dubočica creates 21% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 73 away

1.18

creates per match

0.89

1.19

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Dubočica

1.18

OFK Vršac

0.89

allows per match

Dubočica

1.19

OFK Vršac

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dubočica+0.00on par

OFK Vršac+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubočica ↓

OFK Vršac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Dubočica or draw

69%

Dubočica or OFK Vršac

72%

Draw or OFK Vršac

59%

Winning margin

Dubočica wins by 2+

18%

OFK Vršac wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dubočica 1+ goals

72%

Dubočica 2+ goals

36%

Dubočica 3+ goals

13%

OFK Vršac 1+ goals

65%

OFK Vršac 2+ goals

28%

OFK Vršac 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Dubočica (draw refunded)

58%

OFK Vršac (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubočica at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.19 · 74 matches

OFK Vršac away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.34 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubočica attack 1.18 + OFK Vršac defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.26

OFK Vršac attack 0.89 + Dubočica defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dubočica scores more

41%

level

28%

OFK Vršac scores more

31%

Dubočica at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dubočica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff