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OFK Levski vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa — Third League - Northwest 2018

OFK Levski
OFK Levski
FT
0 – 5
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
3/11/2023Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 18Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

OFK Levski24%
×Draw23%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFK Levski
1.21
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.89

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa creates 56% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 43 away

creates per match

OFK Levski
1.43
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
2.51

allows per match

OFK Levski
1.27
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00

finishing

OFK Levski+0.00on par
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFK Levski ↓

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

OFK Levski or draw
47%
OFK Levski or Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
77%
Draw or Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
76%

Winning margin

OFK Levski wins by 2+
10%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

OFK Levski 1+ goals
70%
OFK Levski 2+ goals
34%
OFK Levski 3+ goals
12%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1+ goals
85%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2+ goals
56%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

OFK Levski (draw refunded)
31%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFK Levski at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.27 · 98 matches

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa away — creates 2.51, concedes 1.00 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFK Levski attack 1.43 + Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa attack 2.51 + OFK Levski defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

OFK Levski scores more
24%
level
23%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa scores more
53%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: OFK Levski 0–5 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa beat OFK Levski 5-0 in Third League - Northwest on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Levski.