Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs OFK Levski — Third League - Northwest 2018

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
OFK Levski
OFK Levski
5/21/2022Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 32Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa79%
×Draw14%
OFK Levski8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
2.69
OFK Levski
0.71

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa creates 279% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 100 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
3.09
OFK Levski
0.90

allows per match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
0.51
OFK Levski
2.30

finishing

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa+0.00on par
OFK Levski+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa ↓

OFK Levski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or draw
92%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or OFK Levski
86%
Draw or OFK Levski
21%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa wins by 2+
58%
OFK Levski wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1+ goals
93%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2+ goals
74%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 3+ goals
49%
OFK Levski 1+ goals
51%
OFK Levski 2+ goals
16%
OFK Levski 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (draw refunded)
91%
OFK Levski (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at home — creates 3.09, concedes 0.51 · 45 matches

OFK Levski away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.30 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa attack 3.09 + OFK Levski defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.69

OFK Levski attack 0.90 + Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa scores more
79%
level
14%
OFK Levski scores more
8%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs OFK Levski

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa beat OFK Levski 2-0 in Third League - Northwest on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Gorna Oryahovitsa.