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OFK Levski vs Dunav Lom — Third League - Northwest 2018

OFK Levski
OFK Levski
CANC
12:30
Dunav Lom
Dunav Lom
2/24/2024Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 16Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

OFK Levski31%
×Draw26%
Dunav Lom44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFK Levski
1.21
Dunav Lom
1.49

Dunav Lom creates 23% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 7 away

creates per match

OFK Levski
1.43
Dunav Lom
1.71

allows per match

OFK Levski
1.27
Dunav Lom
1.00

finishing

OFK Levski+0.00on par
Dunav Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFK Levski ↓

Dunav Lom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

OFK Levski or draw
56%
OFK Levski or Dunav Lom
74%
Draw or Dunav Lom
69%

Winning margin

OFK Levski wins by 2+
13%
Dunav Lom wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

OFK Levski 1+ goals
70%
OFK Levski 2+ goals
34%
OFK Levski 3+ goals
12%
Dunav Lom 1+ goals
77%
Dunav Lom 2+ goals
44%
Dunav Lom 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

OFK Levski (draw refunded)
41%
Dunav Lom (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFK Levski at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.27 · 98 matches

Dunav Lom away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFK Levski attack 1.43 + Dunav Lom defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Dunav Lom attack 1.71 + OFK Levski defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

OFK Levski scores more
31%
level
26%
Dunav Lom scores more
44%

Dunav Lom at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dunav Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

OFK Levski face Dunav Lom (Third League - Northwest)

Third League - Northwest returns with OFK Levski hosting Dunav Lom. Match starts February 24, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

OFK Levski host Dunav Lom at Gradski stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.