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Dunav Lom vs OFK Levski — Third League - Northwest 2018

Dunav Lom
Dunav Lom
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
OFK Levski
OFK Levski
8/12/2023Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 1Gradski Stadion Lom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dunav Lom71%
×Draw18%
OFK Levski12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Lom
2.29
OFK Levski
0.80

Dunav Lom creates 186% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 100 away

creates per match

Dunav Lom
2.29
OFK Levski
0.90

allows per match

Dunav Lom
0.71
OFK Levski
2.30

finishing

Dunav Lom+0.00on par
OFK Levski+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Lom ↓

OFK Levski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dunav Lom or draw
88%
Dunav Lom or OFK Levski
82%
Draw or OFK Levski
29%

Winning margin

Dunav Lom wins by 2+
47%
OFK Levski wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Dunav Lom 1+ goals
90%
Dunav Lom 2+ goals
66%
Dunav Lom 3+ goals
40%
OFK Levski 1+ goals
55%
OFK Levski 2+ goals
19%
OFK Levski 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dunav Lom (draw refunded)
86%
OFK Levski (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Lom at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

OFK Levski away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.30 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Lom attack 2.29 + OFK Levski defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.29

OFK Levski attack 0.90 + Dunav Lom defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Dunav Lom scores more
71%
level
18%
OFK Levski scores more
12%

Dunav Lom at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Dunav Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dunav Lom vs OFK Levski

Dunav Lom beat OFK Levski 2-1 in Third League - Northwest on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion Lom in Lom.