Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

OFK Levski vs Drenovets — Third League - Northwest 2018

OFK Levski
OFK Levski
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Drenovets
Drenovets
3/5/2022Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 20Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

OFK Levski60%
×Draw21%
Drenovets19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFK Levski
2.00
Drenovets
1.02

OFK Levski creates 96% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 68 away

creates per match

OFK Levski
1.43
Drenovets
0.76

allows per match

OFK Levski
1.27
Drenovets
2.56

finishing

OFK Levski+0.00on par
Drenovets+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFK Levski ↓

Drenovets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

OFK Levski or draw
81%
OFK Levski or Drenovets
79%
Draw or Drenovets
40%

Winning margin

OFK Levski wins by 2+
36%
Drenovets wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

OFK Levski 1+ goals
86%
OFK Levski 2+ goals
59%
OFK Levski 3+ goals
32%
Drenovets 1+ goals
64%
Drenovets 2+ goals
27%
Drenovets 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

OFK Levski (draw refunded)
76%
Drenovets (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFK Levski at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.27 · 98 matches

Drenovets away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.56 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFK Levski attack 1.43 + Drenovets defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.00

Drenovets attack 0.76 + OFK Levski defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

OFK Levski scores more
60%
level
21%
Drenovets scores more
19%

OFK Levski at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "OFK Levski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: OFK Levski 3–1 Drenovets

OFK Levski beat Drenovets 3-1 in Third League - Northwest on March 5, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Levski.