Drenovets 2–2 OFK Levski: Result & Stats

Drenovets

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

OFK Levski

9/30/2023

Third League - Northwest · Northwest - 8Stadion Drenovets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Drenovets57%

×Draw21%

OFK Levski22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DrenovetsExpected goals in this matchOFK Levski

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.26

Drenovets

2.13

OFK Levski

1.26

Drenovets creates 69% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 100 away

1.96

creates per match

0.90

1.61

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Drenovets

1.96

OFK Levski

0.90

allows per match

Drenovets

1.61

OFK Levski

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Drenovets+0.00on par

OFK Levski+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drenovets ↓

OFK Levski →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Drenovets or draw

78%

Drenovets or OFK Levski

79%

Draw or OFK Levski

43%

Winning margin

Drenovets wins by 2+

35%

OFK Levski wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Drenovets 1+ goals

88%

Drenovets 2+ goals

63%

Drenovets 3+ goals

35%

OFK Levski 1+ goals

72%

OFK Levski 2+ goals

36%

OFK Levski 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Drenovets (draw refunded)

72%

OFK Levski (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drenovets at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.61 · 67 matches

OFK Levski away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.30 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drenovets attack 1.96 + OFK Levski defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.13

OFK Levski attack 0.90 + Drenovets defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Drenovets scores more

57%

level

21%

OFK Levski scores more

22%

Drenovets at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Drenovets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff