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OFK Beograd vs Jedinstvo Ub — Super Liga 2026

OFK Beograd
OFK Beograd
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jedinstvo Ub
Jedinstvo Ub
3/30/2025Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 29Stadion pod Kraljevicom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

OFK Beograd57%
×Draw22%
Jedinstvo Ub20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFK Beograd
1.89
Jedinstvo Ub
1.03

OFK Beograd creates 83% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 19 away

creates per match

OFK Beograd
1.35
Jedinstvo Ub
0.74

allows per match

OFK Beograd
1.32
Jedinstvo Ub
2.42

finishing

OFK Beograd+0.00on par
Jedinstvo Ub+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFK Beograd ↓

Jedinstvo Ub →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

OFK Beograd or draw
80%
OFK Beograd or Jedinstvo Ub
78%
Draw or Jedinstvo Ub
43%

Winning margin

OFK Beograd wins by 2+
33%
Jedinstvo Ub wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

OFK Beograd 1+ goals
85%
OFK Beograd 2+ goals
56%
OFK Beograd 3+ goals
29%
Jedinstvo Ub 1+ goals
64%
Jedinstvo Ub 2+ goals
28%
Jedinstvo Ub 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

OFK Beograd (draw refunded)
74%
Jedinstvo Ub (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFK Beograd at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 37 matches

Jedinstvo Ub away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFK Beograd attack 1.35 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.89

Jedinstvo Ub attack 0.74 + OFK Beograd defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

OFK Beograd scores more
57%
level
22%
Jedinstvo Ub scores more
20%

OFK Beograd at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "OFK Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: OFK Beograd vs Jedinstvo Ub

OFK Beograd beat Jedinstvo Ub 3-0 in Super Liga on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion pod Kraljevicom in Zaječar.