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Jedinstvo Ub vs OFK Beograd — Prva Liga 2018

Jedinstvo Ub
Jedinstvo Ub
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
OFK Beograd
OFK Beograd
8/20/2023Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 3Stadion Dragan Dzajic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Jedinstvo Ub41%
×Draw26%
OFK Beograd33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Ub
1.41
OFK Beograd
1.23

Jedinstvo Ub creates 15% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 20 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Ub
1.56
OFK Beograd
1.45

allows per match

Jedinstvo Ub
1.02
OFK Beograd
1.25

finishing

Jedinstvo Ub+0.00on par
OFK Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Ub ↓

OFK Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Ub or draw
67%
Jedinstvo Ub or OFK Beograd
74%
Draw or OFK Beograd
59%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Ub wins by 2+
19%
OFK Beograd wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Ub 1+ goals
76%
Jedinstvo Ub 2+ goals
41%
Jedinstvo Ub 3+ goals
17%
OFK Beograd 1+ goals
71%
OFK Beograd 2+ goals
35%
OFK Beograd 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Ub (draw refunded)
56%
OFK Beograd (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Ub at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.02 · 54 matches

OFK Beograd away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Ub attack 1.56 + OFK Beograd defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.41

OFK Beograd attack 1.45 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jedinstvo Ub scores more
41%
level
26%
OFK Beograd scores more
33%

Jedinstvo Ub at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jedinstvo Ub will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Jedinstvo Ub 0–3 OFK Beograd

OFK Beograd beat Jedinstvo Ub 3-0 in Prva Liga on August 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Dragan Dzajic in Ub.