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OFK Beograd vs Grafičar — Prva Liga 2018

OFK Beograd
OFK Beograd
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Grafičar
Grafičar
3/2/2024Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 22Omladinski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

OFK Beograd52%
×Draw26%
Grafičar23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFK Beograd
1.54
Grafičar
0.92

OFK Beograd creates 67% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 125 away

creates per match

OFK Beograd
1.70
Grafičar
1.14

allows per match

OFK Beograd
0.70
Grafičar
1.38

finishing

OFK Beograd+0.00on par
Grafičar+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFK Beograd ↓

Grafičar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

OFK Beograd or draw
77%
OFK Beograd or Grafičar
74%
Draw or Grafičar
48%

Winning margin

OFK Beograd wins by 2+
27%
Grafičar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

OFK Beograd 1+ goals
79%
OFK Beograd 2+ goals
45%
OFK Beograd 3+ goals
20%
Grafičar 1+ goals
60%
Grafičar 2+ goals
23%
Grafičar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

OFK Beograd (draw refunded)
70%
Grafičar (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFK Beograd at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.70 · 20 matches

Grafičar away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.38 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFK Beograd attack 1.70 + Grafičar defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.54

Grafičar attack 1.14 + OFK Beograd defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

OFK Beograd scores more
52%
level
26%
Grafičar scores more
23%

OFK Beograd at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "OFK Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: OFK Beograd 0–2 Grafičar

Grafičar beat OFK Beograd 2-0 in Prva Liga on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Omladinski Stadion in Beograd.