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Grafičar vs OFK Beograd — Prva Liga 2018

Grafičar
Grafičar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
OFK Beograd
OFK Beograd
5/18/2024Prva LigaPrva Liga · Championship Round - 6Rajko Mitić - Jug veštačka trava 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Grafičar44%
×Draw25%
OFK Beograd31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grafičar
1.50
OFK Beograd
1.21

Grafičar creates 24% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 20 away

creates per match

Grafičar
1.75
OFK Beograd
1.45

allows per match

Grafičar
0.98
OFK Beograd
1.25

finishing

Grafičar+0.00on par
OFK Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grafičar ↓

OFK Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Grafičar or draw
69%
Grafičar or OFK Beograd
75%
Draw or OFK Beograd
56%

Winning margin

Grafičar wins by 2+
22%
OFK Beograd wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Grafičar 1+ goals
78%
Grafičar 2+ goals
44%
Grafičar 3+ goals
19%
OFK Beograd 1+ goals
70%
OFK Beograd 2+ goals
34%
OFK Beograd 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Grafičar (draw refunded)
59%
OFK Beograd (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grafičar at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.98 · 125 matches

OFK Beograd away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grafičar attack 1.75 + OFK Beograd defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.50

OFK Beograd attack 1.45 + Grafičar defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Grafičar scores more
44%
level
25%
OFK Beograd scores more
31%

Grafičar at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Grafičar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Grafičar 1–1 OFK Beograd

Grafičar and OFK Beograd drew 1-1 in Prva Liga on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Rajko Mitić - Jug veštačka trava 5 in Beograd.