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OFK Beograd vs Dubočica — Prva Liga 2018

OFK Beograd
OFK Beograd
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dubočica
Dubočica
12/10/2023Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 20Omladinski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

OFK Beograd58%
×Draw25%
Dubočica17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFK Beograd
1.60
Dubočica
0.74

OFK Beograd creates 116% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 73 away

creates per match

OFK Beograd
1.70
Dubočica
0.79

allows per match

OFK Beograd
0.70
Dubočica
1.51

finishing

OFK Beograd+0.00on par
Dubočica+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFK Beograd ↓

Dubočica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

OFK Beograd or draw
83%
OFK Beograd or Dubočica
75%
Draw or Dubočica
42%

Winning margin

OFK Beograd wins by 2+
31%
Dubočica wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

OFK Beograd 1+ goals
80%
OFK Beograd 2+ goals
47%
OFK Beograd 3+ goals
22%
Dubočica 1+ goals
52%
Dubočica 2+ goals
17%
Dubočica 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

OFK Beograd (draw refunded)
77%
Dubočica (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFK Beograd at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.70 · 20 matches

Dubočica away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.51 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFK Beograd attack 1.70 + Dubočica defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.60

Dubočica attack 0.79 + OFK Beograd defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

OFK Beograd scores more
58%
level
25%
Dubočica scores more
17%

OFK Beograd at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "OFK Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: OFK Beograd 1–0 Dubočica

OFK Beograd beat Dubočica 1-0 in Prva Liga on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Omladinski Stadion in Beograd.