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Dubočica vs OFK Beograd — Prva Liga 2018

Dubočica
Dubočica
FT
3 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
OFK Beograd
OFK Beograd
9/3/2023Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 5Gradski stadion Dubočica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Dubočica34%
×Draw27%
OFK Beograd39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dubočica
1.21
OFK Beograd
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 20 away

creates per match

Dubočica
1.18
OFK Beograd
1.45

allows per match

Dubočica
1.19
OFK Beograd
1.25

finishing

Dubočica+0.00on par
OFK Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubočica ↓

OFK Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dubočica or draw
61%
Dubočica or OFK Beograd
73%
Draw or OFK Beograd
66%

Winning margin

Dubočica wins by 2+
14%
OFK Beograd wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Dubočica 1+ goals
70%
Dubočica 2+ goals
34%
Dubočica 3+ goals
12%
OFK Beograd 1+ goals
73%
OFK Beograd 2+ goals
38%
OFK Beograd 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Dubočica (draw refunded)
46%
OFK Beograd (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubočica at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.19 · 74 matches

OFK Beograd away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubočica attack 1.18 + OFK Beograd defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

OFK Beograd attack 1.45 + Dubočica defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dubočica scores more
34%
level
27%
OFK Beograd scores more
39%

OFK Beograd at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "OFK Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Dubočica 3–5 OFK Beograd

OFK Beograd beat Dubočica 5-3 in Prva Liga on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Dubočica in Leskovac.