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OFI vs Larisa — Super League 1 2018

OFI
OFI
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Larisa
Larisa
E. Salcedo 56'
T. Fountas 7', 3'
2/28/2026Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 23Pankritio Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

OFI45%
×Draw27%
Larisa28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFI
1.40
Larisa
1.04

OFI creates 35% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 65 away

creates per match

OFI
1.28
Larisa
0.78

allows per match

OFI
1.29
Larisa
1.52

finishing

OFI+0.00on par
Larisa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFI ↓

Larisa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

OFI or draw
72%
OFI or Larisa
73%
Draw or Larisa
55%

Winning margin

OFI wins by 2+
22%
Larisa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

OFI 1+ goals
75%
OFI 2+ goals
41%
OFI 3+ goals
17%
Larisa 1+ goals
65%
Larisa 2+ goals
28%
Larisa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

OFI (draw refunded)
62%
Larisa (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFI at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.29 · 131 matches

Larisa away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.52 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFI attack 1.28 + Larisa defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.40

Larisa attack 0.78 + OFI defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

OFI scores more
45%
level
27%
Larisa scores more
28%

OFI at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "OFI will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
T. FountasOFIOFI · F
8.7

Match Events

3'
T. Fountas↳ K. Kostoulas
7'
T. Fountas↳ L. Shengelia
12'
Yvann Maçon
46'
A. Kossonou← E. Ferigra
46'
G. Kakuta← P. Sisto
56'
E. Salcedo↳ G. Kanellopoulos
61'
F. Bainovic← G. Kanellopoulos
64'
K. Apostolakis← D. Olafsson
64'
F. Perez← Y. Macon
73'
B. Gonzalez← A. Androutsos
73'
A. Leya Iseka← E. Salcedo
73'
G. Pasas← A. Sagal
76'
Konstantinos Apostolakis
82'
I. Chatzitheodoridis← N. Athanasiou
82'
I. Theodosoulakis← L. Shengelia
88'
Ahmed Ouattara Kossonou
90+4'
Goni Naor

Possession

52%OFI

Shots

9OFI

Pass accuracy

49%OFI

Statistics

OFILarisa
Overview
52%Possession48%
9Total Shots10
1.00Expected Goals (xG)0.55
4Corners7
13Fouls20
Shots
9Total Shots10
4On Target4
1Off Target4
4Blocked2
6Inside Box3
3Outside Box7
Passing
52%Possession48%
443Total Passes403
367Accurate Passes342
83%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
-1.09Goals Prevented-1.09
Discipline
13Fouls20
0Yellow Cards4
1Offsides1

OFI 3 – 0 Larisa

OFI beat Larisa 3-0 in Super League 1 on February 28, 2026.

Goals: T. Fountas (3', 7'), E. Salcedo (56').

OFI controlled possession (52%) and registered 9 shots to 10.

The match was played at Pankritio Stadium in Heraklion.